2023: The Odd Favours Obi, The Labour Party Candidate

By

Idris Usman

(Civil Society Leader)

From years of observing election trends in Nigeria, I have come to understand that there is a pattern to the trajectory of voting in our country.

Speaking from experience as a student of history and a Political aficionado and having coordinated the Goodluck Jonathan Neighbour to Neighbour Campaign as Kaduna State Deputy Coordinator and served within the same period as a Senior coordinator overseeing the Northwest Campaigns and played a strategic role in the 2015 elections. The 2023 elections is turning out to be a lot like the 2011 elections. This time around there is no major candidate from the North that the Northerners are passionate about as opposed to 2011 when there was a Muhammadu Buhari.

Undoubtedly, there will still be pocket scenarios where the Fulani(s) would want to vote their own and some others wanting to vote with ethnic leanings. However, we do not have the cult like following as was the case with Buhari in 2011.

For every state in the Northwest, we have at least over 25 percent that are core Christians, in the same Northwest, we still have liberal Moslems that could come to about 18%, and we have the Talakawas who were avid Buharists but now undecided or may choose to consider antecedents and several other parameters as a deciding factor on who their candidate will be. Atiku’s credibility challenges may also come into play and  this might take away from his votes in the Northwest all the same still see Atiku making some headway though not as huge as Buhari in 2011. I see Northwest being split between Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Atiku while Peter Obi can easily  get the 25% vote from the zone.

Northeast where Atiku is from and it is a given that he will largely be voted for is threatened by the influence of Vice Presidential candidate of the All ProgressivesCongress,  (APC), Kashim Shettima who also hails from the Northeast. If you look at it critically, Borno and Yobe will have Atiku and Shettima going head to head with Obi not doing badly. In Gombe State Obi will still get the required votes, including two other states – Bauchi and Taraba. If you look closely at these permutations you will find similarities between what we have now and 2011.

The North Central comprising of Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Benue, Peter Obi already has a strong foothold in most of the states in NorthCentral. In Nasarawa and Benue, Obi is likely to pull 35% to 40%, in Kwara Obi  may get between 20% to 25%, in Kogi Obi is equally likely achieve between 15% and 18% and in Niger about the same percentage as Kogi State.

In South West, the major contenders for Southwest are Tinubu and Obi. Atiku’s fan base in Lagos is considerably low. The Obidient movement which is fully active and on ground in Lagos, enlightened detribalized Lagosians, the Igbos, Urhobos, average Nigerians who believe power should shift to the South East and other ethnicities spread throughout Lagos will most likely go with Peter Obi. If Tinubu were to win in Lagos State it will be with a very slight margin or we could be in for another big surprise. Tinubu will win in Ogun State, Atiku and Obi might get up to 20% – 25% respectively. Osun state is a little dicey as they have been known to vote for PDP traditionally yhough APC still has some foothold there, I see the vote being split between Atiku and Tinubu with Obi getting above 20%. Ondo State has always had a peculiar style of voting, I see the votes being split between Tinubu and Obi more so as the Governor has been clamoring for a Southern President. Ekiti State has a good number of enlightened individuals however they are also very traditional in their voting pattern. I wouldn’t bank on the Obidient movement influencing the numbers that much in Ekiti, I do believe the votes would be split between the PDP and the APC while Obi woll still get a good amount of votes regardless.

South East irrespective of the squabbles with a few of their leaders coming out to say one or two negative things about Peter Obi, is a big plus for the Labour Party’s candidate. Obi  is very popular amongst the electorates down to the grassroots. All the five states in the Southeast, Obi will do about 75% to 85% easily, he has the Southeast on lockdown despite the unrest, insecurity and the activities of the Indigenous People of Biafra, (IPOB) and Eatern Security  Network, (ESN).

The South South is one zone that we can confidently say are not loyal to any cause in particular and have traditionally voted in favour of the PDP in the past. In a situation where the internal squabbles between Wike and the PDP Presidential candidate Atiku are not resolved timely, the South-South which ordinarily should be split between PDP and LP will now lean more towards the LP to the detriment of the PDP. A 60% may go to Obi in the South-South while Atiku and Tinubu will be left with 40% to share except of course the PDP heeds to Wike, realigns with him. But even if reconciliation is achieved before the election, Obi can still come up with about 45% leaving 55% to be split unevenly between Atiku and Tinubu.In conclusion, it is obvious that Atiku doesn’t really have any states in particular be it in the North East or the North West and this applies to Tinubu as well. Peter Obi is the only candidate of all the aspirants that has a zone guaranteed and that is the South East. The zone with the deciding votes would be the North Central and if Obi can do well with INEC being a fair and unbiased umpire, not playing favorites, vote buying totally eradicated or considerably reduced, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) working well. The winner already decided. These are permutations that are realistic and well grounded in experience and history however they remain permutations subject to change.